PhD students

Senior researchers at M.E are deeply involved in the New Zealand academic environment, including PhD supervision. Below you can find profiles for current PhD students and successful graduates.

Duncan Grimson

Institution: Massey University

Supervisors: Prof. Mark Bebbington (Massey University), Dr. Garry McDonald (M.E Research)

Abstract: Assessing Dynamic Value Chains under Cascading Natural Hazards.

New Zealand is exposed to a wide range of natural hazards with the growing influence of climate change only expected to increase this vulnerability. Many of the impacts of these disruptions will be economic in nature and can be estimated via economic modelling. However, traditional modelling approaches often overlook the unique disruptive elements of natural hazards, such as the out of equilibrium dynamics and the propagation of impacts along the economy’s value chains. Using an approach that intertwines ecology and economics, my research will incorporate standard (input-output) and emerging (network analysis) economic practices with business transaction data to estimate the dynamic spatial and temporal impacts of disruptions, and address the limitations of standard economic approaches. An improved estimation of natural hazard disruptions will provide improved clarity in local (business, industry, or regional level) and national decision-making processes to provide better recommendations of disaster risk reduction strategies. This approach will be applied to a case study focused on the Rangitaiki and Tarawera river systems in New Zealand’s Bay of Plenty region.

Martyna Wala

Institution: School of Environment, University of Auckland

Supervisors: Dr. Garry McDonald (M.E Research), Prof. Anita Wreford (AERU, Lincoln University), Prof. Shane Cronin (School of Environment, University of Auckland)

Abstract: Socio-economic Adaptation to Ongoing Taranaki Volcanism.

My research focuses on enhancing socio-economic adaptation and resilience to potential long-term volcanic disruption caused by Mt. Taranaki. My holistic perspective highlights complex interactions between system components, while the application of System Dynamics methodology enables the simulation of plausible changes in the behaviour of aspects of the socio-economic system under distress. My research seeks to identify robust strategies and pathways for dynamic transition through long-term disruption under conditions of deep uncertainty. This transdisciplinary topic sits at the interface of hazard management, socio-economics, decision theory, and systems science.

Annal Dhungana

Institution: Joint Centre for Disaster Reduction, Massey University

Supervisors: Dr. Emma Hudson-Doyle (JCDR, Massey University), Dr. Raj Prasanna (JCDR, Massey University), Dr. Garry McDonald (M.E Research), Prof. Douglas Paton (Charles Darwin University, Australia)

Abstract: Effective communication of model uncertainty.

Different mathematical and computational models have been designed by scientist to support decision-making during emergency response and recovery. However, uncertainties arise throughout the modelling process, from the input data, during modelling itself, and in the outputs. Communication these model uncertainties is important during decision-making. However, we do not understand what information decision makers need regarding these uncertainties. Through this research, decision-makers need will be identified, while also interacting with scientist around current practice. Through gaining rich, insightful, and nuanced understandings of decision-making needs, and current uncertainty communication practice by the scientist, the study will help develop a guiding mechanism to communicate model uncertainty.

Rahul Rakesh Chopra

Institution: University of Auckland

Supervisors: Prof. Nirmal Nair (University of Auckland), Dr. Garry McDonald (M.E Research)

Abstract: Mitigating Natural Hazard Risks: The Role of Disruptive Technologies and Economic Modeling.

My research investigates the interplay of natural hazards, energy systems, and resilience. By modeling earthquake impacts and resilience, I explore how disruptive technologies like smart grids and sensors can enhance energy infrastructure and overall societal resilience. I examine economic, social, and policy implications of these technologies, aiming to develop strategies for their effective integration and widespread adoption. Economic impact modeling utilises the quasi-computational general equilibrium model ‘MERIT’ developed by Market Economics and GNS. Ultimately, our goal is to create a more resilient, sustainable, and equitable energy future.

Kasra Habibi

Institution: Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of Auckland

Supervisors: Dr. Alice Chang-Richards (School of Engineering, University of Auckland), Dr. Olga Filippova (School of Business, University of Auckland), Dr. Robert Cardwell (M.E Research)

Abstract: Economic Drivers for Functional Recovery of Multi-Storey Buildings.

Seismic design standards in many earthquake-prone countries, such as New Zealand, are life-safety-focused. However, learnings from past major events and recent research direction have called for functional recovery-based design that considers both life-safety and functionality of buildings post-hazard. This study aims to investigate the economic drivers for functional recovery by quantifying the overall economic benefit of implementing low damage and repairability-based design concepts. First, a detailed seismic risk assessment quantifies direct economic and social consequences. Given the seismic risk, economic recovery is then simulated using a dynamic equilibrium-seeking model to quantify indirect economic losses and pace of recovery. A demand-supply approach is introduced to explicitly account for the dependence of recovery trajectory of communities on their supply capacities. The findings are hoped to provide evidence-based research to support the adoption of functional recovery-based design and practices towards achieving greater socioeconomic resilience in the face of disasters.

Completed PhD's

  • Completed: 2023

    Institution: Faculty of Engineering, University of Auckland

    Supervisors: Prof. Liam Wotherspoon (School of Engineering, University of Auckland), Dr. Garry McDonald (M.E Research)

    Abstract: The Application of Integrated Land Use and Economic Models to the Simulation of Natural Hazard Events.

    To date, most applications of economic and land use change models to assess natural hazards have focused on the dimensions of vulnerability, fatalities, capital, and short-run economic impacts. This research applies an integrated land use change and economic model to a hypothetical volcanic eruption to demonstrate the simulation of long term-long land use change, economic impacts, and recovery pathways after a natural hazard event has occurred. The research also develops a concept called Built Environment Services that introduces more holistic measures of well-being, and important characteristics of the built environment, into an integrated modelling environment.

  • Completed: 2022

    Institution: School of Environment, University of Auckland

    Supervisors: Prof. Paul Kench (School of Environment, University of Auckland), Assoc. Prof. Mark Dickson (School of Environment, University of Auckland), Dr. Garry McDonald (M.E Research)

    Abstract: Modelling the Economic Implications of Coastal Managed Retreat.

    My thesis presents a new method to support robust approaches to implementing coastal managed retreat for coastal communities exposed to climate change through rising sea levels and increasing storminess. It uses Evolutionary Economic analysis, System Dynamics, Scenario Planning and Robust Decision Making to identify Dynamic Adaptative Policy Pathways for implementation. The approach models scenarios of baseline climate risk, coastal mitigation and adaptation to assess the economic implications of a large-scale managed retreat for a study area in Hawke’s Bay, well known for exposure to a range of coastal hazards. It develops a new integrated assessment model called C-ADAPT to assess possible pathways for vulnerable communities to adapt to coastal hazards until 2050. The economic impact modelling utilises the quasi-computational general equilibrium model ‘MERIT’ developed by Market Economics and GNS.

  • Completed: 2016

    Institution: Ecological Economics Research New Zealand, Massey University

    Supervisors: Assoc. Prof. Marjan van den Belt (Ecological Economics Research New Zealand, Massey University), Dr. Garry McDonald (M.E Research)

    Abstract: Tackling Complexity using Interlinked Thinking: Well-being as a Case Study.

    The world today is made up of a series of highly interconnected complex systems characterised by uncertainty. Human minds struggle with complexity, and the tools available to help us are limited. This often leads to reductionism, focusing on the parts rather than the whole. Working with individual parts ignores the dynamics that result from interdependencies between components. It is these interactions that determine the behaviour we experience in real world situations. This PhD presents ‘interlinked thinking’ as a communication and analytical approach to help people work with, rather than ignore, complexity. It is a participatory process that allows people not familiar with systems thinking to have a structured dialogue on how components interrelate.